The Rabbit Hole
Why are they exceptional one moment, yet go missing the next? Confidence? Maybe, but why does it come and go? Ability? They've got it in spades. But this inconsistency, it's maddening.
Every football coach has this player. Every fan, every parent knows this madness. This madness was the start of my rabbit hole as I fell into coaching and embarked on my UEFA badges.
What I found was the status quo, the accepted narrative of how to coach, the books, the experts, the way it should be done—none of it resonated, none of it explained what I was seeing. So I started digging. I'm still digging and I believe I've landed on something.
I believe the answer to this, and more broadly football potential, lies in understanding a player's cognitive profile.
The Theory
Football measures and focuses on what it can see. But the true marker of success is hidden beneath this, and exists in the cognitive profile of a player.
I define cognitive profile as: how quickly a player processes decisions, how much context they can hold when making that decision, and how easily they access that context as pressure increases.
Technique and physicality matter, of course they do. But they're coachable. A player's touch can improve. Their speed can be developed. Their positioning can be refined. All through good coaching.
Cognitive capabilities appear to be different. Research suggests they're identifiable early and remain largely stable. Meaning, you can help a player access what they have, but you can't increase what they have.
If this is true, and it may not be, we're selecting players and identifying potential based on entirely the wrong things.
What I've Tested
I've applied the cognitive profile concept to my own coaching, from muddy grassroots pitches to slightly less muddy JPL pitches, with strong results. I've applied it to betting markets with good success. I've made predictions about player and manager fit that have held true, and I've submitted research to Hudl for presentation that was accepted.
At the same time, I've run some very questionable training sessions trying to figure this out. I've not backed my own concept when I should have done and I've gone down rabbit holes that led nowhere.
And yet, every time I'm ready to walk away, I see something that pulls me back in. Something that makes me think I'm right. So I keep going. I keep digging. I keep building.
Where This Is Going
I'm documenting my journey as I attempt to prove that cognitive profiles can be identified early and used to help players develop, and they predict potential better than current methods.
My ultimate goal is to implement DecisionMotion at a professional football club. Not as a consultant. Not as a side project. Fully—across everything. Recruitment, coaching, academy development, first team performance.
If any of this resonates, get in touch. If it doesn't, check back in a year and see if I was right.