A Frustrated Parent
Why is he exceptional in the park and yet goes missing in matches. Confidence? Maybe, but that doesn't seem to be it as it comes and goes. Ability? Clearly he has it, but why is he so inconsistent?
These were my thoughts, trying to understand them became a rabbit hole that made me question everything we think about identifying, coaching, and predicting football ability. What I discovered wasn't about confidence or ability at all - it was something deeper.
This lead to a complex theory that became DecisionMotion.
The Theory Simplified
Players are predictable. Performance is predictable. System fit is predictable.
DecisionMotion argues that technical execution and physical gifts are secondary to decision-making. It presents a structure that we can use to understand the reasons behind why players choose what they choose, and from understanding those choices the beautiful game starts to make sense.
If we understand it, we can coach it. If we can coach it, we can predict it. If we can predict it... well, that's where it gets interesting.
Four Cornerstones
Talent
What if a chaotic 10-year-old who drives coaches mad is a future elite? What if that player who goes missing in matches and training, is tomorrow's future star. What if the player who dominates and everyone loves is already at their ceiling?
We're starting to think traditional scouting has it backwards. And that we can see tomorrow, today.
Coaching
What if all those beautiful drills are teaching the wrong thing? What if the players who look worst in training are actually learning best? What if perfect execution in practice predicts failure in matches?
We're starting to think we know why these skills don't transfer. And that we can create drills that affect matchdays.
Performance
What if every touch leaves a fingerprint that reveals how players think? What if past performance contains a code that predicts future success? What if statistics aren't just history - they're prophecy?
We're starting to think they do, and our models are showing early promise in predicting system fit and player performance.
Simulation
What if you could simulate football from first principles? Not the physics, but the actual decisions that create the motions which we observe and love? This is probably impossible.
But I'm trying anyway. The rabbit hole must end somewhere, and if I can do this then this massive waste of time may have just been worth it. I'm 3 months in and thought it was about time I shared a little bit more about what I'm up to.
FCC is DecisionMotion theory applied to a grassroots football. My LinkedIn posts is DecisionMotion theory predicting the future. This page is me admitting that DecisionMotion might be wrong but I'm having a lot of fun tumbling down the rabbit hole.
Over the next weeks and months, I'll update this page with interesting research, tips, drills and let you know how we're getting on. If you're interested in finding out more, you can connect with me on LinkedIn.